HOLIDAY PAUSE... AND INTO A STREAM OF NEW DATA
December is here and after a small pause, it looks like we're heading into December with a ton of data releases, new reports, and a bit of insight into what's to come. For many, these new reports will give an indication of the near 2023 future and in a way, it feels like the future is loading and about to release.
SO, WHAT CAN WE EXPECT THIS WEEK?
A big amount of economic releases as Wall Street heads into the final month of 2022 and braces for the Federal Reserve’s last possible interest rate hike of the year.
The government’s monthly employment report, data on the housing market, GDP growth, PCE inflation, and a reading on consumer confidence are some of the many highlights we will see in the coming days. And analysts are already talking about what they expect those reports will say.
WORKFORCE
The Labor Department’s latest employment report will release at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday morning.
Economists expect nonfarm payrolls rose by 200,000 last month, according to estimates from Bloomberg. If this is true, it would mean a downtrend in the labor market still-robust hiring on a historical basis. This could affect rates and push the FED to higher ones.
CONSUMER
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index is out Thursday. Yahoo Finance said that PCE is expected to show a 0.4% rise in October, up from 0.3% during the prior month, according to Bloomberg estimates. Over the prior year, PCE inflation is expected to have eased to a rate of 6% from 6.2% previously. And they do not expect the Fed to change until U.S. PCE inflation falls below 4%.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR DATA
From Yahoo Finance
MONDAY
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity, November (-23.0 expected, -19.4 during prior month)
TUESDAY
FHFA Housing Pricing Index, September (-1.3% expected, -0.7% during prior month);
House Price Purchasing Index, Q3 (4.0% during prior quarter);
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite, month-over-month, September (-1.15% expected, -1.32% during prior month);
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite, year-over-year, September (10.65% expected, 13.08% during prior month);
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index (12.99% during prior month); Conference Board Consumer Confidence, November (100.0 expected, 102.5 during prior month)
WEDNESDAY
MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended Nov. 25 (2.2% during prior week); ADP Employment Change, November (195,000 expected, 239,000 during prior month); GDP Annualized, quarter-over-quarter, Q3 second estimate (2.7% expected, 2.6% prior estimate);
Personal Consumption, quarter-over-quarter, Q3 second estimate (1.5% expected, 1.4% prior estimate);
GDP Price Index, quarter-over-quarter, Q3 second estimate (4.1% expected, 4.1% prior estimate);
Core PCE, quarter-over-quarter, Q3 second estimate (4.5% prior estimate);
Advance Goods Trade Balance, September (-$90.2 billion expected, -$92.2 billion during prior month);
Wholesale Inventories, month-over-month, October preliminary (0.5% expected, 0.6% during prior month);
Retail Inventories, month-over-month, October (0.4% during prior month);
MNI Chicago PMI, November (47.0 expected, 45.2 during prior month);
Pending Home Sales, month-over-month, October (-5.2% expected, -10.2% during prior month);
JOLTS Job Openings, October (10.325 million expected, 10.717 million during prior month); Federal Reserve Beige Book
THURSDAY
Challenger Job Cuts, year-over-year, November (48.3% during prior month); Personal Income, October (0.4% expected, 0.4% during prior month);
Personal Spending, October (0.6% expected, 0.8% during prior month);
PCE Deflator, month-over-month, October (0.4% expected, 0.3% during prior month);
PCE Deflator, year-over-year, October (6.0% expected, 6.2% during prior month);
PCE Core Deflator, month-over-month, October (0.3% expected, 0.5% during prior month); PCE Core Deflator, year-over-year, October (5.0% expected, 5.1% during prior month); Initial Jobless Claims, week ended Nov. 26 (240,000 during prior week);
Continuing Claims, week ended Nov. 19 (1.551 million during prior week);
S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, November final (49.8 expected, 50.2 during prior month);
Construction Spending, month-over-month, October (-0.2% expected, -0.2% during prior month);
ISM Manufacturing, November (49.8 expected, 50.2 during prior month);
ISM Prices Paid, November (46.6 during prior month);
ISM New Orders, September (49.2 during prior month);
ISM Employment, November (50.0 during prior month);
WARDS Total Vehicle Sales, November (14.90 million expected, 14.90 prior month)
FRIDAY
Friday: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, November (200,000 expected, 216,000 during prior month);
Unemployment Rate, November (3.7% expected, 3.7% during prior month);
Average Hourly Earnings, month-over-month, November (0.3% expected, 0.4% during prior month);
Average Hourly Earnings, year-over-year, November (4.6% expected, 4.7% prior month); Average Weekly Hours All Employees, November (34.5 expected, 34.5 during prior month); Labor Force Participation Rate, November (62.3% expected, 62.3% during prior month); Underemployment Rate, November (60.8% prior month)
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Earnings Calendar
Tuesday: Baozun (BZUN), Bilibili (BILI), Compass Minerals (CMP), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Hibbett (HIBB), Intuit (INTU), NetApp (NTAP), Workday (WDAY)
Wednesday: Donaldson (DCI), Five Below (FIVE), Frontline (FRO), Hormel Foods (HRL), La-Z-Boy (LZB), Nutanix (NTNX), Okta (OKTA), Petco Health and Wellness (WOOF), Pure Storage (PSTG), PVH (PVH), Royal Bank of Canada (RY), Salesforce (CRM), Snowflake (SNOW), Splunk (SPLK), Synopsys (SNPS), Titan Machinery (TITN), Victoria's Secret (VSCO)
Thursday: Ambarella (AMBA), American Outdoor Brands (AOUT), Big Lots (BIG), ChargePoint (CHPT), Designer Brands (DBI), Dollar General (DG), G-III Apparel (GIII), Kroger (KR), Li Auto (LI), Manchester United (MANU), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Patterson Companies (PDCO), Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Veeva Systems (VEEV), Weber (WEBR), Zscaler (ZS)
GOT QUESTIONS ON HOW THIS CAN AFFECT YOU?
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LYON BERN
Wealth & Asset Management
San Juan, Puerto Rico
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