Q4 MARKET TRENDS

Updated: Oct 25

After emerging from the deepest recession in peacetime, the world economy entered a recovery phase, with high annual growth rates of GDP, consumption, production, merchandise trade and corporate profits. Now the world faces the always complicated phase of re-entry to a new normal that usually brings with it turbulence and doubts about how the landing will be.


The effects of the stimulus related to the pandemic could fade: keep in mind that this recovery has been fueled by abnormally large aid from mainly European central banks and the FED (Quantitative Easing) and governments (unemployment support, aid to families, investment in infrastructure). This economic boost was of a specific nature.


Investment boom? Analysts expect the increase in government and business investment to continue. The structural changes in demand and consumption after the crisis and the low interest rates of debt financing, are winds in favor of business investment.


There are some uncertainties that concern the financial markets for Q4: inflation and the risk of rising interest rates, problems in the global supply chain, the possible "default" of Chinese real estate companies, the cost of energy. , among others.


Financial institutions such as UBS foresee a soft landing, with positive dynamics in the economy, companies and financial markets, thanks to the recovery of employment and consumption, the spending of part of the immense savings accumulated in recent quarters, the increase in the industrial production as the shortage of some critical supplies eases and investment programs in the EU and the US.


Global stocks still have attractive potential and a new rotation is expected to boost cyclical markets and sectors, green and healthcare technologies, and sustainability-focused companies.


A reorientation towards healthcare and medical technology continues, healthcare today benefits from a resurgence in investment, in addition to revolutionary emerging technologies. The challenge is to increase the healthy life years by controlling the cost spiral.


The growth of GDP offers an investment opportunity in all companies associated with raw materials and energy.


From the point of view of real estate investment, the pandemic has been the perfect storm. The ample liquidity due to fiscal and monetary stimuli never seen before that have been able to keep the global economy on its feet, the huge savings accumulated by families since the beginning of the pandemic, the low interest rates that favor indebtedness and expectations of a solid recovery in the economy are helping to warm up the engines of some real estate markets. Not forgetting the shortage of supply, due to the fact that the construction of houses around the world is anemic - due to the lack of labor and materials and the rise in construction costs. This scenario is a short-term opportunity and a long-term risk.


New Zealand, Canada and Sweden are the real estate markets with the highest bubble risk, according to Bloomberg indicators, in whose analysis it claims to have detected warning signs of an intensity not seen since the beginning of the 2008 financial crisis. Norway, United The United States, Denmark and the United States are also sending worrying signals. They are followed by Belgium, Austria, France… This is the situation in some of the main real estate markets that investors must take into account when planning the management of these assets.


SOURCES:

https://elpais.com/economia/negocios/2021-10-03/vuelve-el-miedo-a-una-nueva-burbuja-inmobiliaria-mundial.html


https://www.expansion.com/encuentros/roberto-scholtes/2021/09/16/index.html


https://wealthmanagement.bnpparibas/es/es/news/oportunidades_de_inversion_para_el_cuarto_trimestre_de_20211.html


https://www.bolsamania.com/noticias/pulsos-divisas/el-dolar-le-hara-la-vida-imposible-a-los-bajistas-until-finales-de-ano-segun-saxo--8173507 .html